Grey-Zone Warfare in the 21st Century

Accommodation

If you wish to stay with us before and/or after the event, please contact our Residential Centre for availability and discounted rates.

Call +44 (0) 1865 270362 or email res-ctr@conted.ox.ac.uk

Our accommodation in Wellington Square has been rated as 4-Star Campus Accommodation under Visit England. All bedrooms are modern, comfortably furnished with tea/coffee making facilities, Freeview television, private bath/shower rooms and free WiFi. For more details see our accommodation information.

IT requirements

We will be using Zoom for the livestreaming of this lecture series, and you will be able to submit questions via the Zoom interface. Joining instructions will be sent out prior to the start date. We recommend that you join the session at least 10-15 minutes prior to the start time – just as you might arrive a bit early at our lecture theatre for an in-person event.

Please note that this lecture series will not be recorded.

Recommended reading

Mazarr, M.J., Mastering the Gray Zone: Understanding a Changing Era of Conflict (U.S. Army War College Press, 2015) 

Wismesser, Sean Micahel, Tradecraft, Tactics, and Dirty Tricks: Russian Intelligence and Putin’s Secret War  

Badger, A., The Great Heist: China’s Epic Campaign to Steal America’s Secrets (HarperCollins, 2025) 

Programme details

Lectures take place on Fridays, 2-3.30pm (GMT)

Friday 16 October 
Into the Grey Zone: Theory, Practice and Strategic Ambiguity 
This opening lecture introduces the concept of grey-zone conflict: hostile activity deliberately conducted below the threshold of conventional war. Andrew outlines the core analytical frameworks that will underpin the course – intent, means, deniability, effects, and escalation risk – and explores why incidents such as undersea cable sabotage, cyber intrusions, and covert influence campaigns have become so prominent in European security debates. The lecture establishes a shared conceptual vocabulary for the sessions that follow while also introducing the course’s central question: how useful is ‘grey-zone warfare’ as an analytical concept, and how do policymakers, militaries, and security practitioners apply it in practice?

Friday 23 October
Before the Grey Zone: A History of Warfare ‘Beneath the Threshold’ 
Grey-zone conflict is often presented as a uniquely modern challenge, yet its underlying logic has deep historical roots. This lecture will trace the evolution of political warfare from antiquity through several characteristic flare-ups – Byzantine diplomacy, Atlantic privateering, the Anglo-Russian ‘Great Game’ of the nineteenth century and Soviet ‘active measures’ during the Cold War. By mapping these episodes onto contemporary vocabulary, the lecture will identify recurring patterns – deniable force, proxy actors, influence operations – that have long served strategic ends and continue to shape the conflicts of our own time.

Friday 30 October
Russia: Active Measures and Systemic Disruption in Europe 
Sub-threshold activity has long been a defining feature of relations between Russia and the West and may be understood as one of their dominant strategic themes. This lecture examines the Russian Federation as the most visible contemporary practitioner of grey-zone strategies, locating these activities within the doctrinal foundations of Russian foreign policy and exploring the practical realities of sabotage, cyber operations, disinformation, infrastructure attacks and covert recruitment networks across Europe. The session is foundational to understanding the testing of thresholds, the exploitation of democratic constraints and the sustained pressure that together define grey-zone warfare in the twenty-first century.

Friday 6 November
China: Strategic Statecraft and the Long Game of Competition 
In contrast to Russia’s disruptive approach, Chinese grey-zone activity tends to be systematic, cumulative and embedded within economic and technological structures. This lecture analyses China’s use of industrial espionage, technology acquisition, influence operations and economic coercion as part of a wider strategy of long-term competition. This lecture will explore key concepts including the ‘Three Warfares’, supply-chain leverage, and the integration of state, corporate and academic actors in pursuit of strategic advantage. Considered alongside the previous lecture on Russia, a clearer picture begins to emerge of the full spectrum of sub-threshold strategies confronting Western states. 

Friday 13 November
The Future of the Grey Zone: Technology, Deterrence and Strategic Response 
This lecture looks forward, examining how emerging technologies – artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities and data-driven influence – are transforming the scale and speed of grey-zone conflict. This lecture addresses the central strategic challenge for democracies: how to deter and respond to persistent, deniable aggression without escalating to open war. Drawing on contemporary policy debates, the session considers competing models of deterrence, the role of private companies in delivering them, the limits imposed by legal and ethical frameworks, and the evolving shape of conflict in the twenty-first century. 

Friday 20 November
From Analysis to Action: A Panel Discussion with Government and Industry 
The series concludes with a panel discussion bringing together senior figures from across government, the armed forces, the intelligence community and industry to reflect on the themes raised over the preceding five weeks. Panellists will discuss how grey-zone threats are understood and contested in practice – from the Whitehall policy desk to the boardroom of a critical-infrastructure operator – and where the boundaries of public, private and allied responsibility now lie. Chaired by Andrew, the session offers participants the chance to put questions directly to practitioners working at the sharp end of contemporary sub-threshold competition. 

How and when to watch

Each lecture will last approximately 1 hour, followed by questions.

For online attendees, please join in good time before each lecture to ensure that you have no connection problems. We recommend joining 10-15 minutes before the start time.

Fees

Funding

If you are in receipt of a UK state benefit, or are a care-leaver in the UK, you may be eligible for a reduction of 50% of tuition fees. Please see the below link for full details:

Concessionary fees for short courses

Payment

Please see the terms and conditions for our open-access courses.

Mr Andrew Badger

Andrew Badger is a veteran of the US Intelligence Community (IC) where he served for six years as a human intelligence collection officer. He is a graduate of the CIA’s elite training course ‘The Farm’ and deployed to Afghanistan in 2014 where he conducted intelligence operations in support of the US military. 

Since transitioning to the private sector, Andrew has worked in geopolitical risk management for firms like McKinsey and Deutsche Bank. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Government from Harvard University and a Master’s degree in Diplomatic Studies from the University of Oxford. He is currently a Research Associate with the Oxford Emerging Threats Working Group.

Mr Badger is the co-author of the book The Great Heist: China’s Epic Campaign to Steal America’s Secrets, Harper Collins (2025).

Please use the ‘Book’ button on this page. Alternatively, please contact us on events@conted.ox.ac.uk to obtain an application form.

You can also register for individual lectures if you do not wish to attend the whole series.

You can opt to attend this teaching event either online (via a livestream) or in person at Rewley House, Oxford. You will be given the option of how you wish to attend during the enrolment process. You can only pick one option. If your preferred attendance format is fully booked, you can email us to be put on the waiting list. For those who wish to attend online, please read the IT requirements below before enrolling.

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